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What’s behind the rally in equities this year

What’s behind the rally in equities this year

An important consideration for equity positioning today is understanding what’s been behind the returns in equity markets so far this year. One theory is that it’s a cyclical recovery in global growth — either actual or perceived to be actual ...

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Thoughts on central bank policies and the outlook for the US dollar

Thoughts on central bank policies and the outlook for the US dollar

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been warning markets about a normalization of interest rates since the “taper tantrum” of May 2013  The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied by 15% from two years ago, as a result of expectations of ...

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Second quarter US GDP – Weak growth but we anticipate a rate hike in 2016

Second quarter US GDP – Weak growth but we anticipate a rate hike in 2016

The pace of US GDP growth in Q2 2016 was distinctly weaker than expected at 1.2% on an annualised basis (versus a forecast for 2.5%) after 0.8% in Q1 (revised down from 1.1%) Data for consumption was a bright spot ...

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What does the latest retail sales report tell us about the US economy ?

What does the latest retail sales report tell us about the US economy ?

July’s US retail sales report failed to stick the landing as the consumer takes a breather After a disappointing jobs report in May, the employment picture has improved Consensus estimates are pointing to a plateau in the earnings decline in Q2 ...

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Let the Games begin

Let the Games begin

The first vacation week of August was marked by news of significant monetary policy measures by the Bank of England, a strong US labor market report and grumblings ahead of the Olympic Games in Brazil. Two of the three news ...

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“Please mind the generation gap”

“Please mind the generation gap”

A better understanding of generations’ financial behaviour, their needs and wants, and their impact on the economy should allow investors to benefit from investment opportunities and enable asset managers to create value, while at the same time helping financial markets to ...

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Economic outlook for the rest of 2016 – part 3 of a trilogy

Economic outlook for the rest of 2016 – part 3 of a trilogy

Monetary policy has been a big factor driving asset markets in recent years. We expect this to continue in the second half of 2016. The economic outlook sketched out in parts 1 and 2 of the trilogy is not conducive ...

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A closer look at the US housing market

A closer look at the US housing market

The last week of July 2016 was a busy week in the financial markets, as we had policy meetings at both the Fed and at the Bank of Japan, in addition to the release of second quarter GDP figures in ...

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Economic outlook for the rest of 2016 – part 2 of a trilogy

Economic outlook for the rest of 2016 – part 2 of a trilogy

(Continued from part 1 of the economic outlook for the rest of 2016) So why is growth so lacklustre and is its sluggish pace likely to change any time soon? We think the culprits are public and private sector debt ...

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